If it were not for an allusion to sarasa, with an open microphone and in a ruthless gesture of self-sufficiency as an exhibitor, Martin Guzmán’s presentation to deputies would have been opened and closed according to the official plan, that is, with a nice speech and formally supported by the need to create credibility to recover the economy. Several calculations of their number are not convincing, according to opposition critics, although the central problem in the presentation of the Minister of Economy was the opposition it represents to warn again and again about the severity of the crisis -With unpublished autumn records- and at the same time assume that the budget is a cure in itself, unrelated to politics.
It is strange that a fall in the economy such as that recorded in official data continues to assume for the government that everything is the result of inheritance and pandemics, without continuous quarantine registration and without counting the chapters in their own words, such as the handling of dollar stocks in recent days. There was no reflection on the political support to get out of the crisis. The Minister formally revealed the need for a serious and responsible dialogue, perhaps with a certain delay in the speech, and was at the same time repetitive when he questioned the macristal leadership.
The climate for Guzmán’s exhibition was generated by the attitude of Sergio Massa. He ensured a nice space – not just physical – for the minister’s presentation and claimed that the 2021 budget should create “security” and “predictability” to revive the economy. A way to recognize, perhaps, the panorama of uncertainty as the government can not cope, not even with results such as renegotiation of the debt, due to its own policies.
The Minister’s presentation chatted informally several times in recent days, especially after the announcement that the budget will be sent to Congress in “the right time and form” was buried through the introduction of new restrictions on the purchase of dollars, with the impact of joining companies and still without overcoming unusual barriers for savers. Just inexperience?
Guzmán also saw that it was urgent rebuild its place after being taken over in the internal struggle by the central bank president. Miguel Angel Pesce had insisted with an urgent brake on the outflow of dollars, with reservations in the alarm zone. And despite opposition from Minister Alberto Fernández decided to strengthen the shares, even reverse their statements and reveal the failed strategy of the CFO.
From that day on, the discourse on the dollar became public and linear. The president reiterated the slogan to take care of dollars for production and not to save, something that Guzmán translated into deputies as the main objective for recovering the reserves. There he left Doubt on the extension of the restrictions, even though he considered them to be exceptional.
That part of the speech seemed like a cure for show management of financial guidelines after several counter-points with Pesce, which in general and so far the President had decided in his favor. This is not the only point of reference: there are several officials who are in one way or another linked to the economy who allow the Minister to be questioned, something they previously avoided because renegotiation with external creditors was at stake. In any case, an irony circulated: they limited him to the position of “debt minister”.
The question of credibility, despite the disgust of his own close experience in the matter, expressed an increased conceptual limitation in the ruling party. The Minister claimed that credibility would be the result of technical “consistency” in economic guidelines. He acknowledged the support of Congress for handling negotiations with external creditors, but he does not seem to have drawn conclusions as to why the outcome of the negotiations quickly faded without generating the sustained positive reaction that he himself predicted.
Precisely in the internal discussion on measures to stop the drainage of the dollar, Guzmán had argued that this trend would be reversed by the confidence that the success of the stock market would generate. That did not happen, but the Minister insisted yesterday with concepts that are always linked to practical measures – in this case the objectives of the budget – to project macroeconomic stability. Everything, foreign to the context and political support.
The latter certainly reveals the greatest contradiction to reality in the integrated sense. At least in public, Guzmán and the government in general they prefer not to evaluate the effects of the political course finally decided by the President with the strong imprint of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
Just yesterday, some time before the presentation of the Minister of Deputies, it was known that the Supreme Court had decided to analyze next week’s statements from Judges Leopoldo Bruglia, Pablo Bertuzzi and Germán Castelli, expelled from their positions at CFK with the President’s decree as soon as the procedure in the Senate resolved. It is probable that the court will not resolve the substance of the case and that the case will be delayed in time. Anyway, the readings will in a prominent place include the pressure that places the highest level of justice in the spotlight.
Of course, the intergovernmental government also weighs on the central position of power and the deep disruption of the government’s relationship with the opposition, with another derivation in court due to cuts in resources for the Buenos Aires administration and with growing conflict in the Senate. something that at the moment seems more content and is handled in the Chamber of Deputies. Seen in this way, the repeated history of the dollar is a symptom of a major problem. And what happens in politics it is not an anecdote, but rather a central engine of uncertainty. It is difficult to bet on credibility, as the Minister said and reiterated, only with the budget notes.